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HUGE: The Coronavirus Tracking Project’s Numbers are Suspect After They Are Caught Tacking On Previous Deaths to Current Totals

 

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The Statement of Interest is part of Attorney General William P. Barr’s April 27, 2020 initiative directing Assistant Attorney General Eric Dreiband for the Civil Rights Division, and the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan, Matthew Schneider, to review state and local policies to ensure that civil liberties are protected during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Governor of Illinois has, over the past two months, sought to rely on authority under the Illinois Emergency Management Agency Act to impose sweeping limitations on nearly all aspects of life for citizens of Illinois, significantly impairing in some instances their ability to maintain their economic livelihoods. According to the lawsuit, the Governor’s actions are not authorized by state law, as they extend beyond the 30-day time period imposed by the Illinois legislature for the Governor’s exercise of emergency powers granted under the Act.

Representative Bailey brought his case in Illinois state court and elected only to assert state law claims. On May 15, the presiding state court judge ordered Bailey to file his motion for summary judgment by May 18 and instructed the Governor to respond to it by May 21. A hearing on the motion for summary judgment was scheduled to take place in state court today. Yesterday, however, instead of responding to Bailey’s motion for summary judgment, the Governor removed the case to federal district court.

“The Governor of Illinois owes it to the people of Illinois to allow his state’s courts to adjudicate the question of whether Illinois law authorizes orders he issued to respond to COVID-19,” said Assistant Attorney General Eric Dreiband for the Civil Rights Division. “The United States Constitution and state constitutions established a system of divided and limited governmental power, and they did so to secure the blessings of liberty to all people in our country. Under our system, all public officials, including governors, must comply with the law, especially during times of crisis. The Department of Justice remains committed to defending the rule of law and the American people at all times, especially during this difficult time as we deal with COVID-19 pandemic.”

“However well-intentioned they may be, the executive orders appear to reach far beyond the scope of the 30-day emergency authority granted to the Governor under Illinois law,” said Steven D. Weinhoeft, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Illinois. “Even during times of crisis, executive actions undertaken in the name of public safety must be lawful. And while the people of Illinois must be physically protected from the effects of this public health crisis, including by complying with CDC guidelines their constitutionally guaranteed rights and liberties must be safeguarded as well.”

In its statement of interest, the United States explains that this dispute belongs in Illinois state court, and that Representative Bailey has raised substantial questions as to whether the Governor’s current response to COVID-19 is lawful. Although the complaint does not raise any federal constitutional claims, the statement explains, “It is up to the Illinois courts to rule on Plaintiff’s claims, which, because of the sweeping nature of the Orders, may affect millions of lives and raise significant constitutional concerns in other litigation.” Even in the face of a pandemic, states must comply with their own laws in making these sensitive policy choices in a manner responsive to the people and, in doing so, both respect and serve the goals of our broader federal structure, including the guarantee of due process in the U.S. Constitution.

The federal case is Bailey v. Pritzker, No. 3:20-cv-474.
 

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Noel
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HUGE: The Coronavirus Tracking Project’s Numbers are Suspect After They Are Caught Tacking On Previous Deaths to Current Totals

In monitoring this data for months now, I've noted the inconsistent data reporting policies of various countries, never mind counties and states within the US.

Based on my own real world experience with data reports generated weekly, monthly and quarterly (mistakes are captured and footnoted in the current report) this relieves one of going back to old reports found to be in accurate.

As long as we are following generally accepted protocols the trend should be trust-able.

This leads me to my latest effort of looking at 14 day moving average of recent new infections per million population, which is the metric officials are using to relieve international travel restrictions, also the change in the trend is looked at, if it's diminishing then that is considered good even if the gross count per million is very high.

Example, for the WORLD the rate is 197,028 new cases per day (average of the last 14 days), the daily acceleration is about 2,774 cases and the normalized value is 27 cases per million of the world population.

For the USA, the rate is 54,222 new cases per day (average of the last 14 days), the daily acceleration is about 1,555 cases and the normalized value is 193 cases per million of the US population.

For the Italy, the rate is 192 new cases per day (average of the last 14 days), the daily acceleration is about negative 4 cases and the normalized value is 3 cases per million of the Italian population. Overall Italy is looking good until the last few days, the trend is bending back up though.

My buddies and I are not sure we will be able to get off the ground with the current criteria and trends in the USA, even if we can fly, we still need a negative test for COVID within 48 hours of arrival in Austria & Italy, the logistics of getting said testing on a tight time scheduled trip seems in surmountable given the reports that state & CDC labs are being overwhelmed again by states where shit is hitting the fan 7-14 days delay on results could have us ham-strung.

Trip may get pushed back to summer 2021 at this point, but call has not been made yet.
 

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I've had nothing but doubts regarding the validity of the stats associated with this bug, and more and more each day we are discovering that the numbers are far from accurate. But HERE is one figure that is not in dispute at this time because it isn't statistical in the sense the death and infection rate data are, and that is that Blue Cross- Blue Screwyaover has raised its rates 30% because of Covid. And it's JUST beginning!
 
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Noel
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But HERE is one figure that is not in dispute at this time because it isn't statistical in the sense the death and infection rate data are, and that is that Blue Cross- Blue Screwyaover has raised its rates 30% because of Covid.
Where can I read about this, a quick google search did not show me anything regarding a 30% increase, but the article I did find shows the probability that rates will go up for 2021.

 

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Mississippi Cajun
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Heard it on WWL radio out of New Orleans. Seems a few folks already got the notice in the mail.
 
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Noel
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Heard it on WWL radio out of New Orleans. Seems a few folks already got the notice in the mail.
I'll be on the look out for the coming notices, usually get them late summer or mid fall.
 

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Democratic New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has relied on the same high-powered consulting firm to guide key aspects of his planning for the coronavirus pandemic, as well as to analyze the results of those decisions, including the controversial policy to require nursing homes to accept residents even if they had coronavirus.

McKinsey & Company’s work on both the state’s coronavirus response and the evaluation of that response presents a clear conflict of interest for the firm and the Cuomo administration.

“The more we find out about the Cuomo administration’s disastrous coronavirus response, the more suspicious his actions look,” Rep. Steve Scalise, the top Republican on the House select subcommittee on the response to the coronavirus crisis, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Cuomo began citing McKinsey’s alarming projections about the coronavirus peak in mid-March, just as the state began to see an uptick in cases. Concerned that the state’s hospitals could not deal with an expected tidal wave of sick patients, Cuomo enacted a much-criticized policy on March 25 to require hospitals to send nursing home residents back to their facilities even if they had the virus.

Cuomo has faced intense backlash over the policy, with his critics blaming him for many of the 6,400 reported deaths of nursing home residents. (The Cuomo administration in May admitted knowingly underreporting the number of nursing home deaths.)

The governor claimed vindication on July 6, touting the release of a report from the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH).

The report asserted that the March 25 order could not have caused a surge in nursing home deaths because of the timing of the policy change and the peak in nursing home fatalities. The study instead pinned blame on 37,5000 nursing home staffers across the state, claiming that they unwittingly spread the virus to residents of their facilities. (RELATED: Watchdog Repeatedly Warned About Nursing Home Infections Before Pandemic Struck)

“It was pure politics and it was ugly politics. And now the report has the facts, and the facts tell the exact opposite story,” Cuomo said at a press conference on July 6.

What Cuomo did not disclose — and what was disclosed only in a single footnote in the 33-page NYSDOH report — was that McKinsey & Company analyzed the data for the nursing home study.

McKinsey’s role in developing the after-action report on nursing home deaths means the firm was analyzing the effects of policies it had a hand in creating.


“This is yet another example of why Governor Cuomo must start answering our questions. He continues to avoid transparency by refusing to respond to our letters, and it’s time for him to be held accountable,” Scalise told the DCNF.

Republican Whip Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) speaks during a press conference at the US Capitol on December 17, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

GOP Rep. Steve Scalise (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

McKinsey’s grim projections of the pandemic peak have proved far off the mark. The firm projected that New York would need between 55,000 and 110,000 hospital beds, depending on whether New Yorkers adopted aggressive or minimal social distancing behaviors, respectively. The McKinsey model also projected the state would need between 25,000 and 37,000 ventilators.

“Right now in New York specifically the rate of the curve suggests that in 45 days we could have up to an input of 110,000 beds, people needing 110,000 beds that compares to our current capacity of 53,000 beds,” Cuomo said at a press conference on March 18.

New York ended up only reaching 17% of the number of hospital beds needed in McKinsey’s doomsday scenario, and 34% of those projected in the conservative estimate. Cuomo’s office said in a report released in May that the state peaked at 18,825 hospital patients on April 12.

The New York Times reported that the state reached its peak number of ventilators needed at 4,600, around 18% of McKinsey’s most optimistic prediction. (RELATED: EXCLUSIVE: New York Admits Undercounting Nursing Home Deaths)

Cuomo did not tie the 110,000 bed statistic to McKinsey in the March 18 press conference, but he has linked that number to the consulting firm in several other press conferences about the pandemic, while also touting projections from the Gates Foundation and Columbia University.

“McKinsey, great organization,” he said at a briefing on April 11.

At the March 18 press conference, Cuomo cited the 110,000 statistic and said that the state needed to embrace a three-prong plan to save New Yorkers’ lives: slow the spread of the virus, increase hospital capacity and “identify new hospital beds.”

Cuomo said he met the day before with hospital administrators and was planning to relax Department of Health regulations in order to free up hospital capacity. Cuomo did not mention any changes to policies regarding nursing homes, but he enacted the order a week later.

Cuomo has repeatedly denied that he is to blame for the spike in nursing home deaths. In an interview on June 19, the three-term governor said that his critics were using the fatalities as a “shiny object” to score political points.

He has also defended relying on McKinsey’s models, saying that New Yorkers changed their behavior based on the alarming projections, thus slowing the spread of the virus.

“McKinsey 110,000; McKinsey-moderate with mitigation: 55,000. What actually happened? 18,000,” Cuomo said at a June 18 press conference. “They were all wrong? No. We changed what we were doing.”

The NYSDOH report provides few details about the methodology of the analysis, but says that the agency relied on self-reported nursing home data to conclude that the deaths “were related to infected nursing home staff.”

McKinsey’s involvement in the report is disclosed in one footnote which reads: “The New York State Department of Health staff was supported by McKinsey & Company.”

The firm analyzed the data on nursing home patients for NYSDOH but did not draft the report.

Scalise, the ranking member on the select subcommittee on the coronavirus crisis, wrote in a letter to Cuomo on Thursday that the NYSDOH report “appears to be little more than your administration’s latest attempt to deflect criticism and shift blame for the consequences of your deadly nursing home order.”

He asserted that the report contained “half-baked data manipulations” and “flawed methodology.”

A senior adviser to Cuomo reiterated the governor’s talking points in response to questions from the DCNF.

“All the projection models, including the ones by the Trump administration, the Gates Foundation, and others were off because no one could account for New Yorkers’ widespread compliance of social distancing that bent the curve,” Rich Azzopardi told the DCNF.

Azzopardi did not address questions about McKinsey’s work for the Cuomo administration.

Neil Grace, a spokesman for McKinsey, declined to speak on the record about McKinsey’s work for the Cuomo administration, including on the NYSDOH report.

While Cuomo is claiming victory from the report, some critics of Cuomo’s nursing home policy are casting doubt on its findings.

Christopher Laxton, executive director of the Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine, told ProPublica, that the report was “defensive politics on the part of the governor.”

The New York State Nurses Association called for an independent review of nursing home deaths.

“New Yorkers deserve a full accounting of what happened over the past four months, and the NYSDOH nursing home report, unfortunately, does not move us forward,” the group said in a statement on Friday.

“The need is plain for a comprehensive, independent review of nursing home practices, the role of for-profit operators, and NYSDOH oversight.”

The editorial board for The Buffalo News said on July 8 that while the NYSDOH report provides a “plausible” explanation for nursing home deaths, the report is a “political document” since NYSDOH reports directly to Cuomo.

“It’s well established that governments can’t credibly investigate themselves, so even if the report is accurate, it lacks the arms-length impartiality that would lend it broad credibility,” the editorial board wrote.

There are other reasons to believe that the NYSDOH report does not paint the full picture of nursing home-related coronavirus deaths in the state.

As the DCNF has reported, the health agency in early May quietly changed its reporting rules on nursing home deaths to exclude fatalities that occurred outside the physical nursing home facility. In other words: a patient who became ill at a nursing home and died shortly after arriving at a hospital isn’t counted as a nursing home death in New York.

The New York Times noted in a story analyzing the NYSDOH report that the state does not report all coronavirus-related deaths of nursing home patients.

NYSDOH did not respond to a request for comment.

McKinsey has contributed to other aspects of the Cuomo administration’s pandemic response.

On April 16, the state tapped McKinsey to produce what was touted as a “Trump-proof” plan to revive the state’s economy amid the pandemic.

According to CNBC, McKinsey was hired to produce models on coronavirus testing, infections and other data to help guide decisions on how to safely reopen the New York economy.

Cuomo relied on the consulting firm before the pandemic as well.

The governor hired McKinsey in 2011 to work on an initiative to revamp the state budget. A 2016 “State of the State” report said that Cuomo tapped McKinsey help on an economic redevelopment project for Buffalo.

Founded in 1926, McKinsey & Company has long been considered one of the world’s elite management consulting firms. According to The New York Times, McKinsey serves 90 of the largest 100 corporations in the world.

Its work for major corporations and foreign governments have long been a source of criticism for the firm. McKinsey consultants have worked for the governments of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and China, and rogue companies like Enron and Purdue Pharmaceuticals, which has been blamed for aggravating the opioid epidemic.
 

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ORLANDO, Fla. - After FOX 35 News noticed errors in the state's report on positivity rates, the Florida Department of Health said that some laboratories have not been reporting negative test result data to the state.

Countless labs have reported a 100 percent positivity rate, which means every single person tested was positive. Other labs had very high positivity rates. FOX 35 News found that testing sites like one local Centra Care reported that 83 people were tested and all tested positive. Then, NCF Diagnostics in Alachua reported 88 percent of tests were positive.

How could that be? FOX 35 News investigated these astronomical numbers, contacting every local location mentioned in the report.

The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health's positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.

The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76 percent. A spokesperson for the VA told FOX 35 News on Tuesday that this does not reflect their numbers and that the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent.

FOX 35 News went on to speak with the Florida Department of Health on Tuesday. They confirmed that although private and public laboratories are required to report positive and negative results to the state immediately, some have not. Specifically, they said that some smaller, private labs were not reporting negative test result data to the state.

"The Department immediately began working with those labs to ensure that all results were being reported in order to provide comprehensive and transparent data," a spokesperson for the Florida Department of Health said. "As the state continues to receive results from various labs, the Department will continue educating these labs on proper protocol for reporting COVID-19 test results."..... >
 

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Noel
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These morons running the operation need firing, how the hell can you keep proper statistics not reporting on ALL results?!?!?!?
 

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These morons running the operation need firing, how the hell can you keep proper statistics not reporting on ALL results?!?!?!?
They keep moving the goalposts and redefining words to keep the virus story alive and the fear factor high, All the "health experts" contradict themselves on masks, first we didn't need them , now everyone must wear them, even if they are not effective for the virus. Science is replaced with quackery.
Instead of counting positive cases, they count positive tests so one person can be counted every time he is tested , and every death is a covid death, even if your name is George Floyd.
 

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These morons running the operation need firing, how the hell can you keep proper statistics not reporting on ALL results?!?!?!?
The school district down here just decided that they will not be holding classes on campus until "new case numbers have significantly decreased", so it may have something to do with that.

For some reason they do not want kids back in school. Kids are the ones with the best overall immune system (generally speaking) and exposing them would go a long way to developing immunity (kind of like why we were exposed to chickenpox as kids). Who really believes that kids will stay home and e-study while Dad and Mom go to work instead of take off with their friends or do nothing but watch youtube, faceplant, titter...So that means at least one parent will have to stay home which reduces family income.

Also, this whole "pandemic" is being used to try and make President Trump look bad.
 

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You are right in that "they" don't want kids back in school. Neither do "they" want folks back at work. Neither do "they" want to stop the criminal behavior that is destroying private as well as public property in many large cities. "They" want the entire system to collapse and have the populace begging the government for crumbs in order for them to further their government takeover of everything.
 
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